Hidden Trump Voters: Grassfire Analysis w/ Lee Vasche comparing 2016 Real Clear Politics Averages & Results
Nov 01, 2020Hidden Trump Voters:
Grassfire Analysis w/ Lee Vasche comparing:
2016 Real Clear Politics Averages & Results,
then applying the difference to Current State-by-State RCP Averages.
The Result is Surprising.
Washington, D.C. - On Political Trade Secrets this week, Lee Vasche of Grassfire LLC, joined hosts Dustin Olson and Sean Bartley to analyze the lessons of President Trump's victory in 2016 to better understand the state of the race and assess how the President is really performing in key battleground states.
On the show, Vasche shared his final election week Grassfire Polling Report, shedding light on Hidden Trump Voters. In Lee's analysis, he compares 2016's Real Clear Politics (RCP) Averages and the actual Final Results to 2020's current RCP Avg's of the Polls one week out from Election Day.
DOWNLOAD THE ENTIRE ANALYSIS HERE
This is an important resource for Reporters and Political Leaders to use this state-level perspective to better understand what's going on state-by-state.
With swarms of polls being released in the final days leading up to Election Day, many Americans may feel as though they are experiencing déjà vu with the current narrative surrounding the state of the 2020 race. As Biden is being forecasted as the favorite in many national public media polls, it feels as though the Mainstream Media is walking into the same trap it set for itself in 2016. 
Vasche performed this analysis by first comparing Trump’s 2016 RCP averages to the President's final election results in 11 battleground states, with these discrepancies representing his underperformance in 2016 polling.
Vasche says that this underperformance is evidence of Hidden Trump Voters, who either may not ever be interviewed in the surveys conducted by pollsters or if they are, may inaccurately reflect their opinions to pollsters due to perceived possible backlash based on the media narrative surrounding Trump's presidency. This is what researchers call "Social Desirability Bias."
Next, Vasche added these differentials to Trump’s 2020 RCP averages as of October 28, 2020, to illustrate what the reality on the ground may be when Hidden Trump Voters are taken into account. These new aggregate averages were then compared to Joe Biden’s current RCP averages to determine how close the two may actually be in the most consequential states.
According to Vasche's findings, Trump is ahead significantly in states such as Iowa (+5.5) and Ohio (+6.1), with more narrow leads while many other key swing states, such as Florida (+2.4) and North Carolina (+2.7). Vasche's analysis also shows incredibly close races in Pennsylvania (0.1), Arizona (-0.6), and Wisconsin (-0.9). Further analysis and findings are available on the website and in the show.
“The race is on a knife’s edge, it’s virtually tied,” said Lee Vasche, who discussed his findings in a recent episode of Political Trade Secrets LIVE. “The surprise factor of Trump winning in 2016 could be vastly eclipsed by Trump winning in 2020.”
"After four years of the Media's full-tilt ridicule of President Trump's every move, it is likely that there are even more Hidden Trump voters than we saw in 2016. Our hope is that this analysis helps Americans to better decipher the major public polls they are seeing and better understand how close this race really is."
For more on this analysis, be sure to watch a comprehensive explanation of Vasche's method and findings on the Political Trade Secret Podcast above and check out the slides below.
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